Daily Leisure Hours by Country

As we roll through the Dog Days of Summer it is the time of the year where everyone is enjoying the weather and maximizing leisure time activities. Given the mood we thought we would share some statistics on leisure time from the OECD.

While we ranked 9th among the OECD 26, with Canadians spending on average 5.3 hours per day enjoying leisure time, that is a full hour less than the top ranked country (Norway), but 15 minutes more than the OECD 26 average. Relative to the lowest ranked nation  (Mexico), who enjoyed an average of only 3.7 hours of leisure time each day, we can hardly complain.

So what do we do with those five hours and 20 minutes of leisure time each and every day? According to OECD, Canadians spend more than one third of it watching TV or listening to the radio at home (1.9 hours). While this may seem like a lot of screen- and air-time, it is seven percent below OECD average of 2.0 hours per day. Interestingly, 60 percent of Hungarian’s leisure time is spent watching TV or listening to the radio!

We also spend about a fifth (21 percent, or 1.1 hours) of our leisure time visiting or entertaining friends (a share that is 19 percent higher than the OECD average of 57 minutes) and about 8 percent (or 27 minutes) playing sports. We hope that you are all working hard at getting your 5.3 hours of leisure time in today!

Click here to check out the where other countries rank.

A Landscape of Aboriginals in Canada

On August 9th, we commemorate the United Nations' International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples, which aims to promote and protect  the rights of world's indigenous population.

In recognition of this, we've put together this interactive map, which provides a snapshot of Canada's aboriginal population in the context of total population in both 2001 and 2011. 

Not surprisingly, the greatest proportion of population identifying as Aboriginal in 2011 is seen in the territories, specifically Nunavut (86%), the Northwest Territories (52%), and the Yukon (23%). Among Canadian provinces,  Manitoba has the highest share at 17%, while the lowest proportion seen in Ontario, Quebec, and PEI, at 2%.

The fastest growth between 2001 and 2011 in residents with an Aboriginal Identity was in Nova Scotia, at 99%, while the slowest growth was actually in the Northwest Territories, at 13%.

There is a lot more data to explore within the map, so be sure to take a look around!

Happy BC Day!

Being as fond as we are of demographic data, we thought a good way to start the long weekend celebrations would be to share some historical and projected population estimates for British Columbia with you  here (and when we say "historical", we're talking about going way back--all the way to 1800). 

After declining steadily through the first two-thirds of the 19th century, BC's population bottomed-out at 32,000 in 1867; fast forward to today, and BC is now home to a whopping 4.69 million residents. Interestingly, while it took BC's population almost 80 years to grow to one million (a level attained in 1946), the two million-person mark was hit only 22 years later, in 1968. By 1986 BC had grown to three million people, and within another 13 years the province's population had grown to four million. 

Because the province's population base is much larger than it used to be, and with the natural process of aging--both out of the high fertility stages of life and into the higher-mortality ones--playing a prominent role in demographic change, future growth is projected to be slower in relative terms than what we've become accustomed to. That said, BC is projected to cross the five million-person mark by 2020, and the six million-person mark by 2036, reaching 6.69 million residents by 2050.

We hope you enjoy our latest viz and have a happy and safe long weekend!

Quenching Our Thirst

Summer came early this year to the southwest corner of British Columbia, accompanied by elevated temperatures and very little rain since April. In response to the now rapidly-declining reservoir levels in the region, Metro Vancouver has ramped up water restrictions to Stage 3 of its Water Shortage Response Plan. In essence this means that both washing your car and watering your lawn are off the table; for the time being, however, showering is still permitted--so no excuses!

Given the topical nature of weather and water, we thought we'd share some data that describe daily per capita water consumption by municipalities within the Greater Vancouver Water District.

For example, did you know that, on average, every one of the 2.3 million residents who lived in Metro Vancouver in 2013 consumed 471 litres of water each day? That's equivalent to every person in the region filling up a conventional bath tub six times over every day!

Check our latest viz to find out where each municipality in the region ranks.

Enjoy!

The Why & the What of the Latest Rate Cut

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate for the second time this year, dropping it to a mere 0.5%. This represents its lowest level since the middle of 2009, when the rate was cut to a historical low of 0.25%. A year and half later (at the end of 2010), it was back up to 1%, where it sat undisturbed until January of this year.

The rationale behind the cut has been outlined in the Bank's latest Monetary Policy Report. (or, if you prefer, you can just watch Stephen Poloz's recent press conference here). For those of you who don't want to change websites to find out why the rate was lowered, here's the gist of it. Most importantly, the Bank has lowered its expectation of Canada's economic growth in 2015 relative to its outlook back in April, with the latest data indicating that our gross domestic product actually contracted through the first six months of this year (largely driven by cutbacks in the oil and gas industry). 

The downward revision to Canada's short-term economic outlook also reflects reduced plans for business investment in the energy sector, and weaker-than-expected demand for Canada's exports. This latter trend has been driven by sluggish economic performance in the US and in China, both of which are key export markets for Canada.

While some folks (such as debt holders) are excited about this cut, others (such as those looking to buy their first home) are perhaps not so keen. Regardless, of which camp you are in, it's useful to keep in mind that the ultimate goal of this further loosening of monetary policy is to stimulate economic growth across Canada. Regardless of how it ultimately shakes down, the idea behind this cut is that a further reduction in lending rates should both encourage spending and make it easier to reduce debt loads. The lower interest rate also has an impact on our economy through international trade pathways, with our dollar becoming less expensive relative to the US dollar (and other currencies), thereby stimulating exports (a plus on the GDP ledger) and reducing our appetite for imports (a minus on the GDP ledger). There are many other factors at play, too, so it will be interesting to see what the impacts of these recent changes to the overnight lending rate will be over the coming months and years.

For those who are interested, have a look at our latest viz, which puts Wednesday's rate cut into historical perspective. It seems hard to believe that the rate reached as high as 21.6% in the early-1980s , which was the result of aggressive policies to combat high inflation that prevailed in the wake of the late-1970s energy crisis.

A Decade of Wildfires in British Columbia

Over the past few weeks, the leading news stories here in BC have almost exclusively been centred on the numerous wildfires raging across the province, in particular the Boulder Creek wildfire (northwest of Pemberton Meadows) and the Puntzi Lake wildfire (northwest of Williams Lake).

Due largely to the prolonged dry spell we've been experiencing, BC's wildfires have been both numerous and costly to fight: over the first six months of 2015, 937 wildfires were reported, with many of them currently raging. According to the BC Wildfire Service, $96.9 million has been spent thus far in 2015 fighting these fires, with this bill expected to surge over the coming months. While fighting these fires has been expensive--costing an average of $103,000 per fire--this is only roughly half of the average cost required to fight each of the 1,484 wildfires throughout the province last year ($203,000). 

The largest number of wildfires that BC saw in any one year between 2005 and 2014 was in 2009, when a staggering 3,094 fires burned. This included the wildfires that broke out in the Glenrosa and Rose Valley communities of West Kelowna (they attracted significant media attention, but in the end only three structures were lost). In that year, an average of $125,000 was spent fighting each fire, for a total of $382.1 million spent throughout the year.

For more information on the number of wildfires BC has experienced each year over the past decade, as well as the total and average cost associated with fighting them, check out our latest viz here.

Stay cool, and be safe!

The 25 Most Popular International Cities for Canadians

Summer is here! Traffic is a little bit lighter than usual and even the buses feel slightly less crowded. Have you ever wondered where do fellow Canadians go for a holiday?

While beaches and tropical places are often in the top of one's mind when it comes to a vacation, 2014 data from Hotels.com shows that it is the large metropolitan cities in the US and Europe that are the most popular destinations among Canadians. To help you plan your next vacation we have included the average hotel price per night for each of these popular destinations; the range is rather varied from an average of $76 per night in Bangkok to the $275 per night while visiting the Big Apple. 

Check out our latest viz here. 

Enjoy!

Mobility & Migration: BC recovers while Alberta defies oil expectations

The most recent release of population data from Statistics Canada’s Quarterly Demographic Statistics publication shows that BC continues to recover from a long stretch of net interprovincial out-migration.

For the fifth consecutive quarter, more people came to BC from other provinces than moved in the other direction, with the province gaining 3,806 people through interprovincial mobility in Q1 2015.

On the international front, 2,315 net new residents came to BC from other countries in Q1 2015. While this compares favourably to the 3,145-person net loss in Q4 2014 (which was driven by a significant outflow of non-permanent residents), the most recent level of net international migration is still well below BC's historical average, which is in the range of 7,000 to 8,000 net international migrants during Q1 of each year.

Another highlight of the migration data was the 6,732 net new interprovincial migrants who called Alberta home in early 2015. It seems that Alberta, to this point, has defied expectations of a collapse in employment and migration levels despite persistently low oil prices. Alberta also grew through net international migration (even though they lost 5,896 non-permanent residents, on a net basis, between January and March), welcoming the second-largest number of immigrants (8,187) in a Q1 in the province's history. The latest information from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey supports these mobility data, as Alberta's employment in May 2015 was only marginally below the previous month's level (-0.3%); furthermore, it was actually above the level seen both at the end of 2014 (+0.3%) and in May 2014 (+1.7%).

It is interesting to note that while BC was the source of a significant number of Alberta’s interprovincial migrants in Q1 2015 (5,880, behind only the 7,495 from Ontario), BC did manage to attract almost 7,000 interprovincial migrants from Alberta. (Can you blame them for moving? Wink.) 

Take a look at our latest interactive map that contains a whole lot more population data from Q1 2015 and earlier.

Women & The Beautiful Game

The women's World Cup is underway across Canada, so what better time than now to consider how countries rank in regards to their female population's engagement in the Beautiful Game. To do this we're using the most recent data from FIFA's 2007 Big Count.

With the largest female population of the countries shown in the chart, the US also has, not surprisingly, the largest number of registered female soccer players, at 1.670 million. Here in Canada--where our female population is only 11 percent the size of the United States'--we are kicking above our weight, with 495,000 registered female soccer players. As a result, our female soccer players per capita ratio is, at 10.2, much higher than the US' 1.5. 

How do other countries rank within the top ten? Check out our latest viz here.

Go Canada go!

Sunny Days, 100 Ways

For those of us that live in Vancouver, we've been fortunate that a mild winter has been followed by a warm and sunny spring. In fact, as this email is being written, its 23 degrees and sunny outside--just in time for the weekend.

However, as good as it's been here, it's sunnier most everywhere else in Canada. Check out our latest viz to see how 100 cities in Canada rank against Vancouver's average of 288 sunny days per year.

Have a great weekend!

2013-2014 Residential Sales Trends in the Lower Mainland

Friends and colleagues,

Each year, Urban Futures provides data and support for Bob Rennie’s annual state of the market address to the Urban Development Institute. This year we partnered with Landcor Data Corporation to provide a series of interactive maps that detail the most recent sales data throughout the Lower Mainland. 

Click on the UDI map link on the Landcor website to check out changes in average sales prices and volumes for your local neighbourhood. The maps can also be accessed through the Urban Futures website.

Enjoy!

A country-by-country look at maternity leave duration and wage coverage

With Mother's Day having just passed, we thought it was timely (and somewhat interesting) to consider how countries around the world deal with maternity leave. More specifically, this Friday’s data viz describes the duration of maternity leave granted to new moms, the proportion of their wages covered during this period, and the full wage coverage equivalent for countries around the world (the latter measure is calculated by multiplying the number of weeks of maternity leave permitted by the percentage of wages that are covered during that period).

Perhaps not surprisingly, Sweden tops the list, with 55 weeks of full wage coverage for new mothers. Close behind Sweden were a number of countries that did surprise us, including Croatia, Serbia, and Cambodia. Canada ranks toward the bottom end of the spectrum, at 9 weeks, with the United States bringing up the rear with no coverage.

We hope you enjoy poking around in this latest viz.

Provincial & Territorial GDP in Canada: New Data, Cool Chart

Statistics Canada recently published their latest provincial and territorial gross domestic product (GDP) estimates, which show that Canada generated $1.63 trillion in GDP in 2014 (as measured in chained 2007 dollars). In that same year, 35.5 million people called Canada home, meaning that on a per capita basis, every man, woman, and child generated an average of $45,960 worth of output.

Of course, this single number masks the range of per capita output seen within Canada, from Alberta's high of $74,126 to Prince Edward Island's low of $31,744. To see where the rest of Canada's provinces and territories rank, check our latest viz here.  

There is more information contained in the chart than initially may meet the eye, with the horizontal axis showing the proportion of Canada's total population represented by each province and territory, the vertical axis measuring per capita GDP, and the resulting area of each province's and territory's "box"  representing its total GDP in 2014.

Enjoy!

The State of Two Rates

Good morning,

While the variety of factors influencing Canadian housing markets continues to grow--ranging from the impacts of population aging, equity, and parents helping the kids get out of the basement, to income, affordability, and empty units--one indicator that we keep a close eye on is the mortgage arrears rate and how it tracks with other variables.

To this end, our latest interactive chart illustrates how the arrears rate moves with the unemployment rate in provinces across Canada. Click here to check out the data for your province.

Not surprisingly, there is strong historical relationship between unemployment rates and mortgage arrears rates. This is not a revolutionary statement when you realize that it's much easier to pay the mortgage when you're working than when you're not. It's also interesting to note that in virtually every province across the country we are currently enjoying arrears and unemployment levels that are well below historical long-run averages.

Enjoy!

In Recognition of Earth Day 2015

Friends & colleagues,

Over the past couple of months we have had a lot of fun pulling together some interesting infographics, charts, and maps, ranging from the lighter side of things (beer and chocolate consumption) to the more contemplative (an interactive map of global population growth and change). We have had such positive feedback from these visualizations that we have decided to make them a more regular feature of our mail-outs.

That said, we realize that not everyone will want to receive these emails. Given this (and in accordance with the recent enactment of Canada’s Anti-Spam Legislation) we ask that you click here if you wish to add your email address to our new visualizations (viz) mail-out list. In recognition of Earth Day this week we have pulled together some stats on per capita greenhouse gas emissions by country. Did you know that Canada sits behind only Australia, Luxembourg, and the United States?  See the full country list here.

For those of you who remain subscribers to our primary research mail-outs, we are currently finalizing a projection of seniors' private and collective occupancy demand in Canada, so watch your inbox for a link to that report in the near future.

And please feel free to pass this email on to anyone else who may be interested in signing up to receive either our primary research mail-outs or new viz mail-outs.

Celebrating Easter with a treat-themed Infographic

As a nod to the two-thirds of Canadians who might observe Good Friday and Easter Monday, we thought we would bring together some fun, Easter-themed stats in an infographic. Check it out on our website. 

For everyone who will have their fill of chocolate eggs over the weekend, did you know that Canadians consume 221 million kilograms of chocolate each year? That's equivalent to the weight of two CN Towers!

Wishing everyone a safe and enjoyable weekend.

United Nations' Population Estimates & Projections

We spend a lot of our time here at Urban Futures contemplating the future (in an empirical way), so we were excited to get our hands on the United Nations' latest population projections. Once we mapped the data for all countries around the world and saw some of the patterns that were emerging, we got even more excited--so much so that we wanted to share them with you in this interactive map.

In it you can compare countries' current and projected total population sizes and age compositions, as well as their pace of future growth (or decline).

A few highlights emerged for us:

• While conversations about demographic or economic change often gravitate towards China due to its perceived high growth potential, the consequences of its one-child policy are evident in the demographic projections. For example, while China is projected to grow by 12.5 million residents (only one percent!) between 2015 and 2045, over that same period its working-age population (those between 20 and 64) is expected to decline by 13 percent. At the same time, its seniors’ population is projected to expand by 143 percent. This monumental demographic shift will have significant (and negative) implications for China’s economy in the long-term.

• The projections for India are staggering: 314 million more residents are expected in that country by 2045 (for 25 percent growth), with its working-age population expected to grow by 34 percent, or 246 million people. While China has earned a reputation for being "the world's factory", India may have the demographic blueprint to fill that role in the coming years.   

• Closer to home, the projections for the United States warrant comment as they have more direct implications for Canada's economy. The UN expects the US population to grow by almost 70 million people by 2045, the size equivalent of two current-day Canadas, and more than five times the growth expected for China. And while growth in the US working-age segment is expected to be ten percent over the next 30 years (versus 21 percent overall), the consequences of its post-World War II baby boom will certainly be felt: aging boomers will see the US seniors' population grow at almost four times the rate of the population as a whole, at 75 percent.

• Here in Canada, the UN expects growth of 23 percent between 2015 and 2045 through the addition of 8.3 million people. In comparison, Urban Futures' current national projections are slightly more robust, as we expect 24 percent growth through the addition of 8.5 million people over the same period. Assessments of the impact of aging are similar between the two projections, with both expecting Canada's seniors' population to grow by more than 85 percent by 2045.

A couple of other interesting factoids to share at the dinner table include the following:

• Russia is expected to see its population decline by more people between 2015 and 2045 than any other country in the world: the projected net loss of almost 18.2 million people is equivalent to roughly half of Canada's current-day population.

• By 2045 Japan will (continue to) have the largest proportion of its population in the 65-plus age group of any country, at 36 percent; in absolute terms, there will be more people in Japan's seniors' age group (almost 40 million) than there are people (of all ages) living in Canada today.

Q4 2014 Population Estimates

As expected, Canada’s population grew through the final quarter of 2014, reaching 37.7 million people by the end of last year. What was unexpected, however, was the pace of growth: in adding only 27,000 new residents, Canada posted its smallest three-month gain since quarterly estimates were first published by Statistics Canada back in 1972. To put this into further perspective, the national population has added an average of 46,000 people in the fourth quarter over the past five years (2009 through 2013).

The primary factor driving this slow-down was the net loss of people through international migration. This decline was driven by a net loss of 40,000 non-permanent residents in Q4 2014, as the four-year window originally made available for temporary foreign workers to stay in Canada comes to a close on April 1, 2015. In light of this, we should expect further declines in the number of non-permanent residents through Q1 2015.

The loss of non-permanent residents was not helped much by the slow pace of immigration, with the 52,175 immigrants in Q4 2014 being ten percent below the Q4 average for the past five years. Meanwhile, emigration remained relatively unchanged from the same period a year ago, at 12,700.

Here in BC, our population growth was relatively flat, with the province adding only 1,325 people in Q4. While natural increase (the difference between births and deaths) added 1,900 people, and net interprovincial migration added another 2,500--BC’s largest Q4 addition since 2007--the province lost 3,150 people through net international migration. As was the case for Canada as a whole, this was driven by the loss of non-permanent residents (to the tune of a net outflow of 6,950 people in Q4).

What about Alberta, you ask? Well, this was another surprise: even in the face of the most significant oil price shock since the depths of the 2009 recession, the Statistics Canada data show that Alberta still managed to add 14,000 people--4,200 of which came through interprovincial migration.

For more details on how the population in each province and territory changed in Q4 2014, click here to view our interactive map.

Which Country Drinks the Most Beer?

In recognition of St Patrick's day, we thought we'd bring together two of our favourite things--numbers and beer--and share them with you.

So, what country consumes the most pints per capita? Where does Canada rank? Make a guess and then take a look at our interactive chart. While the countries might not surprise, the quantity consumed may!

The Stories We Told in 2014

As we close out 2014, we thought we would highlight some of the data, research, and presentations that occupied our thoughts and time here at Urban Futures over the past year. 

We're now looking forward to exploring and sharing with you the latest trends and issues that are on our radar for the coming one. 

Read our year-in-review newsletter here.