Housing Projections for Canada and its Major Metropolitan Regions

Over the next three decades, housing occupancy demand in Canada will continue to grow faster than our population; an outlook that differs from the apocalyptic scenarios of a crash in Canada’s housing market that were predicted years ago.

Why the predictions of a market meltdown? The reasoning was largely demographic, based on the notion that the number of people exiting the housing market (the boomers) would exceed the number of new entrants (the busters) sometime in the mid-2000s. Rather than crash and crumble, the past decade has seen many of Canada's housing markets experience one of the most buoyant periods on record. Why did the market meltdown not occur? Simply put, the assumptions underpinning the apocalyptic scenario both over-simplified the forces that shape housing demand--there is more at work than just demographics--and they got the demographics wrong.

Today the baby bust generation (currently between the ages of 39 and 58) is actually larger than the baby boom generation (now 59 to 68) and, while the busters have fully entered the housing market, the boomers have not yet left it. In other words, the baby boomers have not yet had to be replaced in the housing market, and so additional housing was needed to accommodate the busters.

With this as a backdrop, Urban Futures’ Canada Housing Series presents an outlook for Canada’s housing market over the next three decades. Recognizing that housing markets are truly local, projections are also presented for nine of Canada's major metropolitan regions. The projections consider long-run trends in demographic change as well as changing lifecycle patterns of housing occupancy.

The research will have broad appeal, whether you are an urban planner, real estate developer, home builder, or investment manager, or whether you are just generally interested in the implications that changing demographics will have for housing markets across Canada in the coming years.

Click here to access the full report as well as the individual regional profiles.

ਕੀ ਤੁਸੀਂ ਇਹ ਪਢ਼ ਸਕਦੇ ਹੋ? ਮੇਟ੍ਰੋ ਵੈਨਕੂਵਰ ਦੇ 139,230 ਲੋਕ ਇਹ ਪਢ਼ ਸਕਦੇ ਹਨ.

(Translation: Can you read this? 139,230 people in Metro Vancouver can.)

If you had to guess what the most common non-official language was here in Metro Vancouver, what would you say? 

There's a good chance the data on this will surprise you. As part of our brief analysis of languages spoken in Metro Vancouver, we also dug into recent data on religious affiliation and the countries of origin of recent immigrants to shed a little light the demographic diversity that characterizes our region.

To read more about this topic, click here.

Two Data Points Don’t Make A Trend, but… Q2 Population & Migration Estimates for British Columbia Show Positive Signs!

Statistics Canada’s most recent release of quarterly population estimates for Q2 2014 show the population of British Columbia reaching 4.63 million by the end of Q2 2014. Adding 14,676 net new residents between Q1 and Q2 of 2014, the province experienced growth that fell just below the national average (0.3 percent versus 0.4 percent nationally). 

After eight quarters of negative net domestic migration since early 2011, the two most recent quarters of positive gains are a welcome sign for British Columbia. While it is true that two data points do not make a trend, the migration and population estimates for Q2 2014 provide encouraging signs that positive domestic migration in Q1 was not merely an anomaly in the data.

Click here for a brief commentary on BC's latest quarterly demographic estimates.

Click here for a map showing Q2 2014 demographic estimates for Provinces & Territories.

Much Ado About Nothing: What the Census data say, and don't say, about foreign & temporary residents and unoccupied dwellings

Friends and colleagues, with recent headlines speculating on the share of the City’ unoccupied housing stock ranging between 25 and 50 percent, we thought it was time to resend a link to a report that examines the scale of unoccupied units throughout the region’s municipalities and how we compared to other major metropolitan regions in Canada. Using a tabulation of Statistics Canada’s 2011 Census count data (the 100 percent compulsory sample data rather than the voluntary National Household Survey) which detailed unoccupied units by structure type and units occupied by foreign and temporary residents, we found that the share of unoccupied units in the region, at 5% of the dwelling stock, fell just about spot on the national average.

Further to this, in considering the data for the City of Vancouver, we found that the share of units unoccupied in the City, at 6%, was only marginally above the region-wide average.  Interestingly, much of the difference is explained by the City of Vancouver having a greater share of its housing stock as apartments, and a larger share of apartment units typically being unoccupied relative to ground oriented formats.

Unfortunately, discussions around this issue have suffered from, at best, misrepresentation of the available data to consider the issue. At worst they are further entrenching misconceptions about housing occupancy in the region. Either way, if there is going to be a meaningful discussion about housing, and meaningful policy responses to particular issues or trends that we as residents of the region, feel need attention, it is necessary to have a good understanding of what data are available and what they mean before we draw any conclusions from them.

Please see the links below for a brief overview and a technical report detailing the Census data on the unoccupied housing stock and foreign and temporary residents.

For the overview click here

For the Technical document click here

Averages & Anecdotes: Trends in Home Ownership in Canada & Greater Vancouver

Home ownership in Canada continues to be a hot topic in the press, at the office water cooler, and around the dinner table, particularly in regards to the ability of the younger set to become home owners. Nowhere are the discussions more prevalent than here in the Greater Vancouver region. 

In response to this, we've taken a look at rates of home ownership by age and type of dwelling to see if the data support the anecdotes. Are home ownership rates for the younger set moving up or down?

Click here to find out!

Where have the jobs been going in the Lower Mainland?

Between 2006 and 2011, the Lower Mainland added almost 60,000 jobs. What sectors were driving this growth? And which municipalities within the region experienced the greatest job expansion? The answers might surprise you. 

For more information, have a look at our latest article here.

Averages & Anecdotes: 2013 Edition

Here in Vancouver, often referred to as the priciest housing market in Canada, news pertaining to lofty gains in real estate are reported with fervor. Unfortunately, much of the news continues to rely on changes in average prices as a means of identifying current trends, despite the fact that these averages include extreme values at both ends of the price spectrum, thereby distorting actual market trends. Prompted by the over-reliance on average sales prices in discussions of real estate market trends, Urban Futures continues to publish an annual report that looks at all sales in the Lower Mainland region and how multi-million dollar home sales skew the overall housing picture within this market. 

For our latest report, click here.

For a map showing recent changes in average residential sales prices, click here.

For a map showing recent changes in median residential sales prices, click here.

Suburban Futures

At Translink’s recent Moving Our Future Forward conference, Urban Futures presented a long-run projection of population and employment for the Lower Mainland region. As part of the discussion that followed a question was posed regarding the role the suburbs have played in population and employment growth throughout the region. In response, we decided to dig into the most recent Census data, with the findings likely surprising some--especially those who have been reporting on the death of the suburbs.

Click here for a link to our brief report.

We've also created a new interactive map showing where within the region Lower Mainland residents work. Click here to view it. 

Welcome to the new UrbanFutures.com

Friends & Colleagues: 

We would like to introduce you to the new www.urbanfutures.com.  While we've retained all of our historical research content, we've made some changes that are worth noting.

• Check out the new Maps page with interactive reference and thematic maps that will be updated regularly.
• We've added more HTML content to facilitate viewing our reports.
• A mobile version of the site has been created so you can more easily view the content from wireless devices.

We will also be integrating future research updates into a number of social media platforms so that you can keep up with us while you're on the go.

Take a moment to check out the site. We'd love to hear what you have to say.

People & Jobs in the Lower Mainland

The municipalities comprising British Columbia’s Lower Mainland are inexorably connected through an array of common physical and social infrastructure. As such, any discussion that is concerned with the future of regional transportation and transit must be framed within the context of the ever-changing—and expanding—web of people, labour force, and jobs within the Lower Mainland. 

To give context to Translink's Moving the Future conference, which looked at the role transportation will play within the Lower Mainland economy, this report briefly examines historical and projected changes in the regional population, labour force, and employment.

To access the full report, click here.

Migration Trends in Canada, Q2 2013

The latest batch of quarterly Canadian population data was recently released by Statistics Canada, and there are number of interesting trends that are both continuing and emerging. In particular, immigration continues to be a significant driver to population growth both Canada-wide and for most provinces, while interprovincial migration flows are creating “have” and “have not” provinces (with the haves clearly being the prairie provinces and the have nots being everyone else).

To learn more more and to view an interactive map, click here.

People & Jobs in the Lower Mainland

The municipalities comprising British Columbia’s Lower Mainland are inexorably connected through an array of common physical and social infrastructure. As such, any discussion that is concerned with the future of regional transportation and transit must be framed within the context of the ever-changing—and expanding—web of people, labour force, and jobs within the Lower Mainland. 

To give context to discussions around the future of regional transportation infrastructure, this report briefly examines historical and projected changes in the population, labour force, and employment within what might be called the functional Lower Mainland region, which includes the Fraser Valley, Greater Vancouver, and Squamish-Lillooet Regional Districts.

To access the full report, click here.

Numbers & Respect: Why the City of Vancouver Might Not Get the Federal Attention it Wants

Vancouver City Hall is a long way from the Parliament Buildings in Ottawa (4,358 km, actually) and, in terms of federal government decisions, the policy distance often seems much greater than the physical one. With the recent release of the 2011 Census population counts and the 2012 Federal Electoral Boundary proposals, it is appropriate to consider where the City of Vancouver stands, numerically that is, with respect to our federal political representation. [Full Report]

I. Population Matters

The City of Vancouver, with a Census population of 603,502 persons in 2011, accounts for almost two percent of the Canadian population. While this may seem significant to some, the City of Vancouver is only the eighth most populous municipality in Canada. As measured by population rank, there is actually quite a crowd of municipal representatives at the federal cabinet’s door in front of those from the City of Vancouver. Ahead of it in the queue are the heavyweights from Toronto (Toronto’s council represents 2.6 million residents, or almost eight percent of the country’s population), Montreal (1.6 million), Calgary (1.1 million), Ottawa (883,000), Edmonton (812,000), Mississauga (whoa, Mississauga? Yup: 713,000), and Winnipeg (663,000). The Vancouver’s city council is peaking over the shoulders of Winnipeg while Brampton (yes, really, Brampton!) is peaking over our shoulders.

One way for us to move closer, and perhaps be better heard, might be to express the City of Vancouver’s municipal issues as regional issues, as the Vancouver Census Metro Area (CMA) is the third most populous CMA in Canada just behind the Toronto CMA (5.6 million residents) and the Montreal CMA (3.8 million). While easily stated, this may be much more challenging to achieve in reality, as the City of Vancouver only represents 26 percent of its CMA’s population. Hence, bringing municipalities together to express a consensus of regional concerns would require bringing the municipal representatives of the remaining 73 percent of the regional population on board. By comparison, the Toronto’s city council only has to deal with another 53 percent, and the mayor of the City of Montreal the remaining 57 percent. The City of Calgary’s Mayor, Naheed Nenshi, enjoys the luxury of representing fully 90 percent of the Calgary CMA’s population. None of this is meant to be seen as an argument for regional government per se, but rather as an explanation as to why regional partnerships and cooperation would have to be pursued with much more vigor, and require much more energy, here in Vancouver than in most other metropolitan regions in Canada.

To continue reading this report and learn more about riding equality and some proposed redistricting, click here.

A Rental Renaissance: Changes in the Rental Housing Stock at the Provincial, Regional, and Municipal Levels

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While there has been significant media focus on the income dimensions published as part of the latest National Household Survey (NHS) release, much less attention has been given to the data on changes in our housing stock. In fact, the latest NHS data reveal a renaissance in British Columbia’s rental dwelling stock—a trend that warrants further unravelling and discussion.

In British Columbia as a whole, the number of occupied rental dwellings grew by 31,000 units between 2006 and 2011. This 6.3 percent growth in the rental stock contrasts the 3.6 percent decline seen in the preceding five years (2001-2006). Relative to other Canadian provinces, BC’s rental growth put it in the middle of the pack: Newfoundland saw the most rapid growth in rental accommodation (11.7 percent), while Manitoba sat at the other end of the spectrum with a 0.5 percent decline.

Of the 31,000 additional occupied rental units in BC, 87 percent were added in metropolitan regions. Rental accommodation in the Kelowna CMA grew by a whopping 17.2 percent and in the Victoria CMA by 4.4 percent. (Meanwhile the Abbotsford-Mission CMA’s rental stock declined by 1.8 percent.) The Vancouver CMA, with more rental units than any of BC’s other metropolitan regions, saw its rental stock grow by almost eight percent, faster than the provincial average.

To view the full report, click here.