April 2011
By the Numbers: Quarterly International Migration
For those of us that follow the ebbs and flows of migration data, the most recent
release from Statistics Canada’s Quarterly Demographic Estimates caught us off guard.
While most media did not report on the release, headlines could have run the gamut,
from
“Canada experiences its second largest quarter‐over‐quarter decline in net
international migration” to “British Columbia’s net international migration is negative
for the first time ever”.
While the net loss of 727 people from BC to other countries in Q4 2010 is, in and of
itself, a small number (see Figure 1), it is significant both in terms of its direction—being
the first time that BC’s quarterly net international migration has been negative in
Statistics Canada’s database, which dates back to 1972—and in its magnitude of change
from previous quarters. While a seasonal pattern is evident in BC’s quarterly migration
data, the decline in Q4 net international migration was much more pronounced in 2010
than in previous years, falling from a net inflow of 16,371 international migrants in Q3
2010 (the second‐highest on record in the past 38 years, after only Q3 2008), to a net
outflow of 727 international migrants in Q4 2010.
Figure 1: Net International Migration, British Columbia
18,000
14,000
10,000
6,000
2,000
‐727
‐2,000
Why the significant shift from historical trends? As it turns out, the answer lies not in a
significant change in immigration or emigration levels, but in changes in the number of
non‐permanent residents living in both Canada and in BC. For the most part, non‐
Suite
603
‐
510 West Hastings Street
Vancouver
Canada
V6B
1L8
tel:
604.682.8323
fax:
604.682.8388
email:mail@urbanfutures.com
www: urbanfutures.com
Page
2
permanent residents are people residing in Canada who hold a work or study permit,
and their dependants, as well as those holding Minister’s permits or claiming refugee
status.
Net international migration, the mobility dimension most commonly reported on, is
calculated as the number of people moving here from other countries (immigrants)
minus those moving to other countries (emigration) plus the change in the number of
non‐permanent residents in the province. In considering immigration and emigration
flows in Q4 2010, Figure 2 shows that not much of a deviation from recent trends was
seen: 8,499 people immigrated to BC in Q4 2010, close to the decade‐long average for
Q4 immigration of 8,574 people. Similarly, the 1,674 people who emigrated from BC in
Q4 2010 was close to the decade‐long average for Q4 emigration of 1,634 people. The
situation was similar Canada‐wide: Q4 2010 immigration of 57,713 was close to the Q4
decade average of 53,631, and emigration of 11,971 close to the average of 9,705.
Figure 2: Net International Migration, British Columbia
16,000
12,000
8,000
Immigration
4,000
‐
Emigration
‐4,000
Change in non‐permanent residents
‐7,353
‐8,000
The change in the number of non‐permanent residents, on the other hand, was the
largest in British Columbia’s history and the largest Canada has seen since 1991. Relative
to the average Q4 net increase of 170 non‐permanent residents in BC over the past
decade, there was a 7,353 decrease in the number of non‐permanent residents in BC in
Q4 2010. While a seasonal pattern is seen nationally, with Q4 characterized by a decline
in the number of non‐permanent residents (an average decrease of 20,842 over the past
decade), the 34,164‐person outflow was significantly more than has been seen in recent
history.
Suite
603
‐
510 West Hastings Street
Vancouver
Canada
V6B
1L8
tel:
604.682.8323
fax:
604.682.8388
email:mail@urbanfutures.com
www: urbanfutures.com
Page
3
In British Columbia the rather significant divergence from recent trends was the
consequence of the departure of large numbers of temporary workers and/or students
from the province, presumably returning home. Given the shift in direction and the
magnitude of the change, it is important to note that the period leading up to Q4 2010
was a time of above‐average net gains in the number of non‐permanent residents.
Between Q1 2007 and Q3 2010, the number of non‐permanent residents in BC grew by
52,908 (an average increase of 3,527 people per quarter over that period), with Q3 2010
alone seeing an increase of 5,687. Only three months later, 14 percent of the increase in
non‐permanent residents BC had seen since Q1 2007 was lost with the departure of
7,353 people in Q4 2010.
The significant outflow of non‐permanent residents nationally was also reflected in most
provinces. Alberta saw the number of non‐permanent residents decline by 6,725,
Saskatchewan by 414, Manitoba by 406, Ontario by 12,603, and Quebec by 5,900. The
most notable changes were, however, in the west. In only two provinces (BC and
Alberta) was immigration not significant enough to balance the outflow of non‐
permanent residents, thus resulting in declines in total net international migration of
727 in BC and 2,092 in Alberta.
With Citizenship and Immigration Canada estimating that there were 67,755 foreign
workers in BC in 2010 and only slightly fewer foreign students (60,437), trends in
international migration to and from BC over the coming quarters will be interesting to
follow. This is especially true when considered against the backdrop of both the labour
force impacts of our aging population and 2010 seeing the largest number of immigrants
welcomed to Canada since the 1950s.
It will also be interesting to see what the headlines have to say through the remainder
of 2011. More than likely they will focus on an unemployment rate that continues to fall
from recent highs following the 2008 recession and on a relatively significant number of
newcomers being welcomed to Canada as our economy outperforms other
industrialized nations.
Suite
603
‐
510 West Hastings Street
Vancouver
Canada
V6B
1L8
tel:
604.682.8323
fax:
604.682.8388
email:mail@urbanfutures.com
www: urbanfutures.com
